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Safety, cost & evaluation speaker notes

Lead with blast radius, defend the autonomy model, show the rough math and explain how a bad version is stopped before panel exposure.

Opening cue

“An async system can repeat the same mistake across 1,200 patients without anyone watching. Safety therefore has to be structural, measurable and enforced before the model reaches the panel.”

01 · Approval model

Separate preparation from consequential action

Summarize, retrieve, rank

Autonomous preparation

Visible provenance, audit, freshness and deterministic safety gates

Prepare patient message, task or order request

Propose-and-confirm

Named reviewer sees exact payload and consequence before release

Routine scheduling/admin action

Policy-configurable

Narrow allowlist, reversible action, idempotency and exception monitoring

Medication, diagnosis, clinical order, high-risk escalation

Human required; no autonomy

Named accountable clinician, current context and explicit approval

Unsupported or materially conflicting recommendation

Never execute

Abstain, expose uncertainty and request clinical review

“I allow autonomous preparation: retrieve, summarize, rank and draft. Patient communication is propose-and-confirm. Medication, diagnosis, clinical orders and high-risk escalation require a named clinician. Unsupported or conflicting work never executes.”

02 · Defense in depth

Safety at every transition

01

Before reasoning

Identity/scope, consent, data quality, critical-event policy, freshness and eligibility.

02

During reasoning

Scoped context, allowlisted tools, schemas, budgets, versioned guidelines and no direct execution.

03

After reasoning

Claim-evidence verification, temporal supersession, contradiction detection, calibration and deduplication.

04

Before action

Re-check state version, named owner, autonomy policy, idempotency key and exact approval payload.

05

After action

Confirm external result, record outcome, monitor exceptions and support reversal/escalation.

“Grounding is claim-level. I verify a patient evidence reference, current effective time and guideline version for every material clinical claim. Contradiction or missing evidence produces abstention, not prettier prose.”

Before execution, re-check

Patient-state version
Candidate expiry
Named owner
Autonomy policy
Exact approval payload
Idempotency key

03 · Cost math

State assumptions before stating savings

Tier 0 rules

1,200 patients · SQL/features

$0 model cost

Tier 1 triage

30 calls · 2k input + 150 output

~$0.04

Tier 2 specialists

16 calls · 8k input + 800 output

~$0.58

Tier 3 reconciliation

2 calls · 24k input + 1.5k output

~$0.57

Planning buffer

25% · Retries + token variance

~$0.30

Selective weekly run

One 1,200-patient panel · Inference only

~$1.50

Contrast

1,200 × 4 × $0.285

≈ $1,368

Naive frontier fan-out versus roughly $1.50 for the selective illustrative funnel.

“These are planning assumptions, not vendor quotes. The point is the topology: deterministic work for 1,200, cheap triage for about 30, mid-tier reasoning for roughly 16 specialist calls and frontier reconciliation only for two conflicts.”

• Illustrative planning rates—not vendor quotes: small $0.50/$2, mid $3/$15, frontier $10/$30 per 1M input/output tokens.

• Naive alternative: 1,200 × 4 frontier condition calls × ~$0.285 ≈ $1,368 per panel run.

• Caches, deterministic features and fresh-candidate reuse reduce repeat work; infrastructure and human-review time are measured separately.

04 · Ground truth + metrics

Each workflow has a different definition of good

Panel prioritization

Offline

Critical-case recall · precision@K · NDCG · duplicate/stale/unsupported rate

Online

Accept/modify/dismiss · time-to-review · action completion · alert burden

Guardrail

No critical-recall or grounding regression; sampled clinician adjudication

Inbox drafting

Offline

Correct route · unsafe-response recall · grounding · draft completeness · edit distance

Online

Approval/edit rate · time saved · escalation rate · response SLA

Guardrail

Zero autonomous clinical sends; unsafe messages must route to human

Practice improvement

Offline

Metric correctness · cohort validity · subgroup stability · temporal reproducibility

Online

Insight usefulness · drill-down use · experiment adoption · measured change

Guardrail

Suppress small/unstable cohorts and disclose missing/confounded data

“For panel ranking, two clinicians independently identify who needs attention, assign urgency and expected action, then adjudicate. I optimize critical-case recall and ranking quality. Acceptance rate alone is dangerous because it can reward easy, low-value recommendations.”

05 · Release, observability + PHI

Earn panel exposure progressively

01

Deterministic CI

Schemas, policies, ranking, permissions, freshness and Temporal replay tests.

02

Fixture + historical replay

Engineered edge cases plus prior panels with clinician-created labels.

03

Shadow

Generate outputs without clinician exposure; compare to current system and human review.

04

Canary

A small clinician cohort with strict rollback thresholds and daily sampling.

05

Progressive release

Expand only while quality, safety, cost, latency and burden remain inside budgets.

Trace what matters

• trace_id + workflow_id
• tenant/clinician/patient pseudonymous IDs
• state + guideline + agent + prompt + model versions
• routing decision + tool IDs
• token, latency and cost totals
• grounding + safety outcomes
• approval + execution status
• encrypted evidence references—not raw PHI in logs

Keep traces from becoming a chart

Use BAA-approved vendors, minimum-necessary context, pseudonymous identifiers, encrypted evidence references, short retention and tenant/patient scoped access. Raw PHI should not be a default log field.

Closing transition

“The design is safe enough to test, not assumed safe enough to scale. The final section shows how I would sequence proof, migration and deliberate debt.”